- Liberty is favored by 11 points against New Mexico State on Tuesday.
- There is a 47-point total set for the game.
LYNCHBURG, Va. – Weekday Conference USA college football continues on Tuesday with a matchup between the New Mexico State Aggies and Liberty Flames.
The Showdown 🤠 pic.twitter.com/Gk4Y9gXtbp
— Liberty Football (@LibertyFootball) October 13, 2025
There is a massive 11-point spread set in favor of Liberty on college football prop betting sites. This is an eye opening number considering the Aggies are the higher ranked offense and both teams are putting up similar numbers on defense.
New Mexico State Vs. Liberty
- Moneyline: New Mexico State (+330) vs. Liberty (-425)
- Spread: Liberty -11
- Total: 47 Points
Expect A Close, Low Scoring Game
On paper, this matchup screams an ugly, but close game all around. Defensively, they’re both allowing a similar number of points to opponents, with Liberty having the slight edge at 20.7 points allowed per game, while New Mexico State is at 22.8 ppg allowed.
They also each have their strengths in run and pass defense, respectively. Liberty allows the least passing yards per game to opposing QBs (154.2) while NMSU allows the fourth most (246). In the ground game, Liberty is allowing the most rushing yards (196.8) in CUSA, while the Aggies are a top-5 team in the conference in rush yards allowed (152.6).
Where things really push this being a close matchup on college football sportsbooks comes with their offensive numbers, where NMSU holds a +5.2 scoring margin over Liberty. The Aggies are averaging 22.2 ppg while Liberty is the third lowest scoring team in the conference at 17.3 ppg.
Combined, both teams are scoring just 39.5 ppg while allowing opponents to score a combined 43.5 ppg.
Given New Mexico State’s slight advantage on offense and that combined, both teams are scoring and allowing much less than the game’s set point total, we’ll gladly back the Aggies to keep things competitive in what should be a hard game to watch.
