- Tennessee is a 7-point home favorite over Auburn, with a total of 54 and moneylines of -285 and +235.
- Tennessee’s 19 sacks share the national lead, while Auburn has allowed an SEC-high 14.
- Tennessee covered as a home underdog in its 20-17 loss to Texas and now lays 7 points on the same field.
- Tennessee is +2800 to win the SEC championship game, seventh-shortest on the board, while Auburn is +22500.
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. – The Tennessee Volunteers, No. 17 in the AP Top 25, are 7-point home favorites over the Auburn Tigers for Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff at Neyland Stadium on ESPN, with the total at 54.
Tennessee Flips From 5-Point Underdog To 7-Point Favorite
Tennessee is 3-1 overall and 0-1 in conference play following last Saturday’s 20-17 loss to the top-ranked Texas Longhorns, a game the Volunteers still covered because Texas closed as a 5-point favorite at Neyland Stadium. Auburn, 3-1 overall and 1-1 in league play, is a 7-point underdog on that same field, which puts the market’s gap between Texas and the Tigers at about 12 points.
Texas recorded 10 sacks against Faizon Brandon, a freshman making his SEC debut at quarterback, and held him to 145 yards with a single touchdown on 17-of-29 passing. Tennessee scored 143 points in its first three games, 47.7 a game, then 17 against Texas, so laying 7 is a bet that the offense returns to the form of those first three games.
Wendell Moe Jr., the left guard hurt in the Texas game, will not return this season, the Knoxville News Sentinel reported, which leaves a line that just allowed 10 sacks without a starter.
A margin of exactly seven is a push. Tennessee backers need a win by eight or more, while Auburn backers cash on a loss by six or fewer or an outright win.
Saturday’s lines for the game on the college football props board:
| Bet | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee spread | -7 | -110 |
| Auburn spread | +7 | -110 |
| Tennessee moneyline | Win | -285 |
| Auburn moneyline | Win | +235 |
| Over | 54 | -110 |
| Under | 54 | -110 |
Pass Rush Meets The SEC’s Most-Sacked Offense
Tennessee’s 19 sacks in four games put it level with LSU atop the national list, and its defense allows 15.5 points a game, according to the Chattanooga Times Free Press. Auburn has surrendered an SEC-high 14 sacks, and quarterback Byrum Brown has 896 passing yards with six touchdowns against five interceptions since following coach Alex Golesh from South Florida.
An Auburn beat reporter told Rocky Top Insider that Brown can be slow to get rid of the football. A defense averaging 4.75 sacks a game is built to punish that habit, and five interceptions in four games already give it takeaway chances. That is the case for laying a touchdown.
The risk to the favorite runs the other way. Golesh said this week that Auburn’s defense has created negative plays and pressure on the quarterback, and its linebackers, led by Xavier Atkins, who has 3 sacks to go with 7 tackles for loss, according to Rocky Top Insider, are the group that can test a Tennessee line that just allowed 10 sacks.
Golesh Brings Familiar Plays Back To Knoxville
Golesh was Tennessee’s offensive coordinator in 2021 and 2022 under coach Josh Heupel, and Auburn’s up-tempo offense is built on the system he coordinated in Knoxville. Tennessee defensive lineman Carson Gentle said this week that he recognizes plays from two years ago and that the Volunteers may pick up on tendencies. That familiarity gives the defense a read on what Auburn wants to run, a point in favor of the 7.
The Total Of 54 Sits Between The Teams’ Scoring Averages
Tennessee’s four games have averaged 55.5 combined points and Auburn’s about 51, so the total sits between the two. Some books hang 53.5 instead, which turns a 54-point finish into an over there and a push at 54. The college football game total is also the one most exposed to the weather, because the National Weather Service’s Knoxville forecast calls for showers likely Saturday, thunderstorms possible after 2 p.m., an hour and a half before kickoff, and a 70 percent chance of precipitation.
Tennessee Is +2800 In The SEC Title Race
Georgia is +190 and Texas +230 atop the college football futures board for the SEC championship game, followed by Florida at +700, LSU at +900, Alabama at +950 and Ole Miss at +1500. Tennessee is next at +2800, just ahead of Mississippi State at +3000, and Auburn is 12th of the 16 teams at +22500. A loss to Auburn would leave the Volunteers 0-2 in SEC play.
